The United States still benefits from a safe-asset premium that keeps Treasury yields lower than our fiscal fundamentals warrant. Investors continue to buy U.S. debt at fairly low rates, effectively delivering temporary revenue to Washington and delaying consequences that would normally accompany large unfunded deficits. The reckoning may come when major trust funds run dry and Congress reaches for the federal credit card instead of enacting reforms. Once markets believe lawmakers intend to borrow without the political will to repay, the response will be swift: rising yields, a flight from Treasuries, and inflation driven as much by anticipation as by action—outcomes seen many times in other nations with unsustainable social spending. Even before the debt bill comes due, Americans are already suffering from higher prices and interest rates that are putting dreams like homeownership and growing their families out of reach for too many. The affordability crisis is preceding the fiscal crisis and will accelerate the longer Congress delays structural reforms.

Our panel—Veronique de Rugy, Jai Kedia, and Romina Boccia—will examine how close the U.S. is to the fiscal inflection point, why markets still assume Congress will eventually act responsibly, and how today’s institutional framework heightens the risk of fiscal dominance. We’ll also discuss what Congress and the Federal Reserve can do now: from restoring rules-based monetary policy and scaling back the Fed’s balance sheet to taking meaningful steps that avoid an outright “borrow-everything” scenario. This briefing will give Hill staff the research-backed insights needed to anticipate the next inflation cycle—and to help prevent it.

Lunch will be provided.